Probability Revision

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Yvonne Wancke

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5 years, 8 months ago

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Yvonne Wancke 5 years, 8 months ago

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Yvonne Wancke 5 years, 8 months ago

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Yvonne Wancke 5 years, 8 months ago

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Question groups

Group 10 questions

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A bag contains balls of three different colours. You're told how many there are of each, and asked the probability of picking a ball of a particular colour.
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Example showing how to calculate the probability of A or B using the law $p(A \;\textrm{or}\; B)=p(A)+p(B)-p(A\;\textrm{and}\;B)$ . Also converting percentages to probabilities. Easily adapted to other applications.
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Given results from a survey about what people eat for breakfast, where some people eat one or both of cereal and toast. Student is asked to pick the probability of eating either one or the other from a list. Distractors pick out common errors.
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Given the probabilities that each of four out of five friends will win a round of mini-golf, work out the probability that the fifth friend won't win, then use that to find the probability that they will win.
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Rolling a pair of dice. Find probability that at least one die shows a given number.
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It is estimated that 30% of all CIT students cycle to college. If a random sample of eight CIT students is chosen, calculate the probability that... rebelmaths
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Some questions to try
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Topics

No topics have been defined.

Diagnostic algorithm

Extend built-in algorithm?

Base diagnostic algorithm

state (Produces the initial value of the state object): // should be renamed "initial_state"
    [
        "topics": map(
            [
                "topic": topic,
                "status": "unknown" // "unknown", "passed", or "failed"
            ],
            topic,
            values(topics)
        ),
        "retries": 3,
        "finished": false,
    ]

topics_by_objective (A dictionary mapping a learning objective name to a list of indices of topics):
    dict(map(
        let(
            ltopics, values(topics),
            indices, filter(lo["name"] in ltopics[j]["learning_objectives"], j, 0..len(ltopics)-1),
            [lo["name"],indices]
        ),
        lo,
        learning_objectives
    ))

unknown_topics (Which topics are still unknown?): 
    map(x["topic"],x,filter(x["status"]="unknown",x,state["topics"]))

first_topic (The first topic to pick a question on):
    unknown_topics[floor(len(unknown_topics)/2)]["name"]

first_question (The first question to show the student):
    random(topics[first_topic]["questions"])

get_dependents (An expression which gets the topics to update after answering a question):
    expression("""
        [target] + flatten(map(eval(get_dependents,["target":t,"correct":correct]),t,topics[target][if(correct,"depends_on","leads_to")]))
    """)

correct (Did the student get the current question right?):
    current_question["credit"]=1

after_answering (Update the state after the student answers a question):
    let(
        ntopics, eval(get_dependents,["target":current_topic,"correct":correct])
    ,   nstate, state + ['topics': map(
                    if(tstate["topic"]["name"] in ntopics, tstate + ["status":if(correct,"passed","failed")], tstate),
                    tstate,
                    state["topics"]
                )]
    , nstate
    )

action_retry (Use up one retry and visit the same topic again):
    [
        "label": translate("diagnostic.use retry"),
        "state": state + ["retries": state["retries"]-1],
        "next_question": random(topics[current_topic]["questions"])
    ]

action_stop (Stop the exam):
    [
        "label": translate("diagnostic.end test"),
        "state": state,
        "next_question": nothing
    ]

action_move_on (Move to the next topic, or end the exam if there are no more):
    let(
        state, after_answering,
        immediate_next_topics, topics[current_topic][if(correct, "leads_to", "depends_on")],
        unknown_topics, map(x["topic"],x,filter(x["status"]="unknown",x,state["topics"])),
        unknown_immediate_topics, filter(x["name"] in immediate_next_topics,x,unknown_topics),
        next_topics, if(len(unknown_immediate_topics), unknown_immediate_topics, unknown_topics),
        finished, len(next_topics)=0 or state["finished"],
        topic,
            if(not finished,
                next_topics[floor(len(next_topics)/2)]["name"]
            ,
                nothing
            ),
        [
            "label": translate("diagnostic.move to next topic"),
            "state": after_answering,
            "next_question": if(not finished, random(topics[topic]["questions"]), nothing)
        ]
    )

can_move_on:
    action_move_on["next_question"]<>nothing

next_actions (Actions to offer to the student when they ask to move on):
    let(
        feedback, retries_feedback+"\n\n"+translate("diagnostic.next step question")
    ,   [
            "feedback": feedback,
            "actions": if(not correct and state["retries"]>0, [action_retry], []) + if(can_move_on,[action_move_on],[action_stop])
        ]
    )

after_exam_ended (Update the state after the exam ends):
    let(
        state, after_answering,
        ntopics, map(t+["status": if(t["status"]="unknown","failed",t["status"])],t,state["topics"]),
        state+["finished": true]
    )

finished (Is the test finished? True if there are no unknown topics):
    len(unknown_topics)=0 or state["finished"]

total_progress:
    let(
        num_topics, len(state["topics"]),
        known, filter(tstate["status"]<>"unknown",tstate,state["topics"]),
        passed, filter(tstate["status"]="passed",tstate,known),
        num_known, len(known),
        num_passed, len(passed),
        [
            "name": translate("control.total"),
            "progress": if(num_topics>0,num_known/num_topics,0), 
            "credit": if(num_known>0,num_passed/num_topics,0)
        ]
    )

learning_objective_progress:
    map(
        let(
            tstates, map(state["topics"][j],j,topics_by_objective[lo["name"]]),
            known, filter(tstate["status"]<>"unknown",tstate,tstates),
            passed, filter(tstate["status"]="passed",tstate,known),
            num_topics, len(tstates),
            num_known, len(known),
            num_passed, len(passed),
            ["name": lo["name"], "progress": if(num_topics>0,num_known/num_topics,0), "credit": if(finished,num_passed/num_topics,if(num_known>0,num_passed/num_known,0))]
        ),
        lo,
        learning_objectives
    )

progress (Progress on each of the learning objectives, plus total progress):
    learning_objective_progress+
    total_progress

retries_feedback:
    translate("diagnostic.now assessing topic", ["current_topic": current_topic]) + " " +
    let(
        retries, state["retries"], 
        pluralise(retries, translate("diagnostic.one retry left"), translate("diagnostic.retries left", ["retries": retries ]))
    )
    + " " +
    let(
        p,total_progress["progress"],
        percentage, dpformat(100p, 0),
        translate("diagnostic.percentage completed", ["percentage": percentage])
    )

weak_objective_threshold (The amount of credit below which a learning objective is considered weak):
    0.6

finished_feedback:
    let(
        weak_objectives, filter(p["credit"]<weak_objective_threshold, p, learning_objective_progress),
    //
        translate("diagnostic.test is over") + " "
        +
        if(len(weak_objectives)=0,
            translate("diagnostic.passed all lo")
        ,
            translate("diagnostic.more work on lo", ["los": 
                join(map(lo["name"], lo, weak_objectives),", ")])
        )
    )

feedback:
    if(finished,
        finished_feedback,
        retries_feedback
    )

Custom diagnostic algorithm

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Enter review mode immediately on ending the exam?

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Show answer correctness
Show the student's score
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Show expected answers
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Checkpoint description

Yvonne Wancke 5 years, 8 months ago

Yvonne Wancke 5 years, 8 months ago

Yvonne Wancke 5 years, 8 months ago

Question groups

Topics

Learning objectives

Base diagnostic algorithm

Custom diagnostic algorithm

On leaving a question

On timeout

5 minutes before timeout